Faiz Ansari, Thomas Nycz, Julien Des Rosiers-Bélair,
Bitcoin, cryptocurrency’s leading asset, with a market cap of $1.3T, has recently surpassed the $70 000 mark with the help of increased inflows due to the arrival of Blackrock’s new spot bitcoin ETF IBIT, and positive market sentiments with investors anticipating monetary policy easing before the end of the year. Through those exchange-traded funds, where bitcoins are held by assets managers, investors can profit from bitcoin’s return tax-free since ETFs are available in tax-shield account like TFSAs, FHSAs and RRSPs in Canada, without holding the asset itself and having to worry about cybersecurity issues, transfer fees and having to operate a separate “wallet”. That added convenience dramatically increased bitcoin’s demand. Since a year ago, bitcoin’s price went from $28 200 and is now traded at almost $66 000. This represents a return of just over 132%. Since the arrival of Blackrock’s IBIT on January 11 when the currency was traded at around $46 000, bitcoin has gone up 41%. However, in the last week, the price has gone down 8% and is down 11% from its all time high of $73 836. Now what’s causing all that volatility, and most importantly, what’s causing the recent drop in valuation?
When looking at historical performances, it’s obvious that bitcoin has always been volatile, so there’s nothing out of the ordinary for the asset. There are, however, some recent (or future) developments impacting the course of the crypto’s price. First, in bitcoin, approximately every four years when 210 000 are mined, there’s an event called the “halving”, where the amount of bitcoin available for mining gets cut in half. The halving, which is expected to happen on April 16 of this year, also reduces by half the amount of reward that miners obtain for contributing on the network, since miners are rewarded a fixed amount of bitcoin for doing so. For example, at the beginning of 2020, 12.5 new bitcoins were added to the network after 10 minutes of mining, and four years later, that amount was cut in half to 6.25. By logic, this year, the reward will again get cut in half, and miners contributing to the miner of a block will obtain 3.125 bitcoins. In total, there will forever be a maximum of 21 million bitcoin (available + already discovered) on the network.
This formula was thought of by the inventor of bitcoin Satoshi Nakamoto and was meant to limit the supply of bitcoin to increase its scarcity, which should result in a value increase over time. For now, that theory seems to be working, as bitcoin is up more than 64 000% since 2013, the year of its inauguration. This ideology opposes itself from the way central banks are inorganically controlling the economy by hiking and cutting interest rates since the termination of the gold standard around 1914. This means that in addition to the arrival of Blackrock’s new spot bitcoin ETF, investors are investing in hope of capturing price gains that historically have followed halvings. This additional demand for bitcoin has resulted in a sharp price increase in the preceding months, even if the halving has yet to happen.
Bitcoin's recent drop in price has sparked widespread discussion and speculation within the cryptocurrency community. Analysts point to several factors contributing to the downturn, reflecting the complex interplay of market dynamics, investor sentiment, and external economic influences.
One notable event that coincided with the price drop was SpaceX's reported sale of its Bitcoin holdings, which sent ripples through the market. The impact of large entities or notable figures moving their cryptocurrency holdings can significantly influence market sentiment and price movements. This event underscores the sensitivity of cryptocurrency prices to actions by major stakeholders and their potential to trigger sudden market shifts.
Further compounding the market's nervousness were growing concerns about interest rate hikes. Market analyst Josh Gilbert from eToro suggested that expectations of continued high rates might have contributed to a broader market pullback, affecting risk assets including Bitcoin. This situation was exacerbated by a lack of positive news to buoy the market, leading to a tightening of trading ranges and, ultimately, a sell-off.
Adding to the mix, Tina Teng of CMC Markets highlighted the role of rising government bond yields, indicating a reduction in market liquidity, which likely contributed to the sell-off in cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin. Such economic indicators often signal shifts in investor strategies and can precipitate movements in asset prices.
Another aspect considered by analysts was the potential devaluation of the Chinese Yuan, with Matrixport's Head of Research, Markus Thielen pointing out that previous devaluations have led to significant price movements in Bitcoin. This suggests a closely watched relationship between major fiat currency valuations and cryptocurrency markets, hinting at the broader economic factors that can precipitate price changes in digital assets.
While these events have highlighted the vulnerability of Bitcoin to a range of influences, the market's reaction also underscores the diverse strategies employed by investors to navigate volatility. From long-term holding to strategic trading, investor responses to these dynamics play a crucial role in shaping the market's direction.
In summary, Bitcoin's recent price drop reflects a mixture of factors, including market reactions to major sales by influential entities, economic indicators, and broader financial market trends. As the market continues to evolve, understanding these dynamics will be crucial for investors navigating the volatile landscape of cryptocurrency investing.
-Equity Research Team - MGH